Why Melbourne Petrol Prices Jump 25 Cents Overnight While Some Suburbs Stay Low

To understand what happened to petrol prices across Melbourne this week, we need to look at the mechanics of the fuel price cycle and why it creates such dramatic differences between suburbs on the same day.

On 23rd January 2026, motorists in Frankston woke up to find unleaded petrol had jumped from 149.9 cents to 174.7 cents per litre. That is a 24.8 cent increase overnight. At the same time, drivers in Canning Vale over in Western Australia saw their prices drop by 11.4 cents. The question is: why do these two suburbs move in completely opposite directions on the same day?

The Economics Behind Melbourne's Price Cycle

Think of it this way. Melbourne's petrol market operates on a predictable cycle, typically lasting around three to four weeks. Prices start high, gradually discount over the following weeks as servos compete for customers, then suddenly reset back to a higher point. This reset is what Frankston experienced this week.

The key factor here is competition. When one major retailer decides to reset prices, others follow within hours. This creates a wave effect across metropolitan Melbourne. But here is where it gets interesting: not all suburbs reset at exactly the same time.

Where the Savings Are Right Now

While Frankston copped the full force of the price cycle reset, other Victoria suburbs are showing better value. Let me explain what the current price landscape looks like.

Deer Park in Melbourne's west currently averages 170.0 cents for diesel, with prices ranging from 166.5 to 171.9 cents. This is because western suburbs often reset later in the cycle than southeastern suburbs like Frankston.

Further out, regional areas are telling a different story. Bright in the Victorian Alps is averaging 167.2 cents for diesel, while Myrtleford nearby sits at 170.6 cents. These regional towns often escape the worst of metropolitan price cycles entirely.

The Tarneit Factor

Another suburb worth watching is Tarneit in Melbourne's outer west. Prices there jumped 21.5 cents for unleaded, from 156.9 to 178.4 cents. This is because Tarneit, as a newer growth suburb with fewer established servos, tends to follow metro pricing patterns closely.

The reason behind this is simple economics. Suburbs with more independent operators and discount chains maintain lower prices for longer. Suburbs dominated by major chains tend to move together.

Bendigo Feels the Pressure

Bendigo, one of Victoria's largest regional centres, saw its own price movements this week. Unleaded jumped 11.6 cents to 170.5 cents, while diesel increased by 18.8 cents to reach 181.7 cents per litre.

You might be wondering why a regional city 150 kilometres from Melbourne experiences similar price movements. Here is what is happening. Bendigo sits on major transport corridors and has a mix of chain and independent retailers. When metro prices reset, the chains in Bendigo typically follow within 24 to 48 hours.

The Victorian Price Spread

Victoria currently shows diesel prices ranging from 157.9 cents at the cheapest to a remarkable 345.9 cents at the most expensive. That 188 cent spread is larger than any other Australian state.

Essentially, this tells us that location matters enormously. The cheapest diesel in Victoria is found in suburban areas with strong competition, while the highest prices typically appear at remote roadhouses or tourist locations.

Compare this to South Australia, where diesel prices range from 165.9 to 205.9 cents, a spread of just 40 cents. The reason SA shows less variation is simpler market dynamics with fewer extreme outliers.

What This Means for Melbourne Motorists

Understanding these patterns helps you predict where prices are heading next and plan accordingly.

If you are in Melbourne right now, the southeastern suburbs like Frankston and Seaford are at the top of their cycle. Premium 98 in Seaford jumped 10 cents to reach 199.9 cents. Your best strategy is to head west or wait three to four days for prices to begin discounting.

Yarraville in Melbourne's inner west currently shows diesel averaging 170.7 cents. Reservoir in the north averages 172.6 cents for diesel with prices starting from 163.9 cents for savvy shoppers who compare.

The Bigger Picture

Let me break this down step by step. Melbourne's fuel market is not random. It follows patterns driven by wholesale costs, competition levels, and retailer strategies. The suburbs that consistently offer better value are those with strong independent presence and high traffic volumes creating intense competition.

The current data shows that the price cycle has reset in the east and south, while western and northern suburbs are still offering discounted prices. Regional Victoria remains mixed, with some towns like Wonthaggi offering diesel from 167.7 cents while others have already reset.

For motorists filling up this week, the economics favour planning your fill around the cycle. Watch for prices to start dropping in Frankston and surrounds from Monday, while western suburbs will likely reset sometime next week.

Understanding these patterns helps you predict where prices are heading next and plan accordingly.