Six Tankers Diverted, 107 Stations Dry, and a President Talking About Winding Down a War Nobody Has Won

Six Tankers Diverted, 107 Stations Dry, and a President Talking About Winding Down a War Nobody Has Won

Brent crude settled at $112.19 on Friday, its highest since the war began. On the same day, Donald Trump told reporters he was considering "winding down" military operations against Iran. Then the Pentagon announced 2,500 additional Marines were being deployed to the region.

The contradictions are no longer surprising. They are the defining feature of the fourth week of a conflict that has reshaped the global energy market, upended Australian fuel supply chains, and forced a competition watchdog to break its own rules to tell the country what it already knows: the system is not working.

What Happened to the Tankers

The fuel reaching Australia arrives almost entirely on tankers from refineries in Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and India. More than 70 per cent of Australia's refined fuel takes this path. In normal times, the logistics are invisible. Tankers arrive, fuel goes into storage terminals, trucks move it to stations, drivers fill up.

In the last week, that chain has fractured in ways the public is only now seeing. Fuel shipments bound for Australia have been diverted or delayed as global buyers compete for the same limited supply of refined product. Maritime insurance costs for tanker routes near the Middle East have pushed shipping premiums to levels that make some voyages commercially unviable. Importers are paying more for less reliable delivery windows.

The result: over 107 fuel stations across NSW ran out of diesel this week. Not low on diesel. Out of it entirely. Regional towns that depend on a single independent distributor are the first to feel it, because those distributors are the last in the queue when supply tightens.

The ACCC Investigation Gets a Taskforce

On Thursday, Prime Minister Albanese appointed former Australian Energy Regulator chief Anthea Harris to lead a new national fuel supply taskforce. The appointment came as the ACCC escalated its investigation into Ampol, BP, Mobil and Viva Energy over allegations that diesel supply is being restricted to independent wholesalers and distributors servicing regional Australia.

ACCC Chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb said the watchdog "recognises the widespread concerns held by consumers, businesses and farmers about fuel pricing and supply issues arising during the Middle Eastern conflict." The investigation is examining whether the four majors have engaged in anti-competitive conduct by prioritising their own retail networks over independent supply.

This is now a two-track problem. Track one is geopolitical: the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the oil is not flowing. Track two is domestic: even within the supply that is reaching Australia, the distribution may not be fair. The taskforce is supposed to coordinate between the two. Whether it can do so before more stations run dry is an open question.

$112 Oil and the Winding Down That Is Not

Trump said the US is "getting very close to meeting our objectives" in the war with Iran. His Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the administration would lift sanctions on Iranian oil currently stranded at sea, adding roughly 140 million barrels to the global market. That sounds significant until you consider the world uses 100 million barrels every single day.

Meanwhile, Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaced his father after the February 28 strikes, has taken a harder line than his predecessor. In his first public statement he said the Strait of Hormuz "would continue to be closed to pressure Iran's enemies" and warned that "all US bases in the region should be immediately closed or will be attacked."

The oil market is reading the situation clearly. Brent has not dropped below $100 since March 13. It hit $119 briefly last Wednesday when Iranian drones struck a Qatari LNG facility. Goldman Sachs now says crude may remain above $100 for years, not months. Bloomberg reported that the real-world cost of oil is even higher than the Brent benchmark suggests, because physical crude cargoes are trading at significant premiums to the paper market.

Where Prices Stand Right Now

Across the more than 10,000 stations we track at Petrolmate, prices have climbed again this week:

The national unleaded average has pushed past 248 cents per litre, up from 232 two weeks ago. Diesel has crossed 295 cents in most states. In Victoria, one station is showing 400 cents per litre for unleaded. That number would have been unthinkable a month ago.

The price gap between states has narrowed. Two weeks ago there was a 23 cent spread between the cheapest and most expensive state averages. Now it is 19 cents. When a crisis becomes universal, regional variations compress. Everyone is paying more.

The 34 Day Clock

Australia's reserves have dropped. Parliament was told this week that diesel reserves now sit at 34 days and petrol at a similar level, down from 37 days at the start of the crisis. The 762 million litre reserve release on March 13 temporarily stabilised supply but it also drew down the buffer.

The Lowy Institute published an analysis this week titled "Australia's fuel crisis? We told you so." The piece noted that successive governments had been warned about the country's failure to meet the IEA's 90 day reserve requirement, and that the Fuel Security Services Payment, a program to keep Australia's last two refineries operating, costs taxpayers $2.3 billion over ten years but does not actually increase reserves.

The Maritime Union called the crisis "a decade of Coalition neglect" coming home to roost, though the current Labor government has held office for four years and the reserve gap has not closed.

The Food Price Warning Becomes Real

The National Farmers' Federation's warning about food price increases is beginning to materialise. The Land reported this week that freight surcharges have been applied across multiple supply chains, with some regional grocery deliveries now carrying a fuel surcharge for the first time. The Heavy Vehicle Industry Association issued a fuel security update on March 20 warning that the diesel crisis is threatening the viability of small to medium freight operators who cannot absorb the cost increases.

Seeding season has begun across southern Australia. Farmers need diesel to run headers, tractors, and trucks. With 107 NSW stations out of diesel and the ACCC investigating whether majors are restricting supply to independent distributors, the risk to Australia's grain crop is not theoretical. It is operational.

The Mixed Messages Problem

What makes this week different from the previous three is the emergence of conflicting signals. Trump says he is winding down. The Pentagon says it is deploying more troops. Oil drops on the ceasefire talk then spikes on the troop deployment. Khamenei says the strait stays closed. Bessent says sanctions are being eased. Netanyahu says Israel is helping to open the strait. Oil briefly touches $119 then settles at $112.

For Australian consumers and businesses trying to plan, this is worse than consistently bad news. Inconsistency makes it impossible to know whether to fill up now before prices climb further, or wait for the ceasefire that might bring them down. The petrol station owner in rural NSW does not know whether to order extra fuel at inflated prices or hold off. The trucking company does not know whether to lock in a fuel contract or wait.

The only thing the market is consistently telling us is that nobody believes this ends soon. Goldman Sachs saying oil could stay above $100 for years is not a prediction about the war. It is a prediction about the structural damage the war has already done to global supply confidence.

What Comes Next

The national fuel taskforce led by Anthea Harris will report to National Cabinet. Its mandate is coordination, not regulation. Whether it can actually redirect supply to regional areas faster than market forces are directing it to the highest bidder remains to be seen.

The ACCC investigation will proceed. Compulsory document notices have been issued. The investigation has the power to produce meaningful penalties, up to $100 million per breach, but investigations of this scale take months. The stations that are dry today need fuel today, not a legal finding in September.

For drivers, the calculus is unchanged but more urgent. Track prices. Fill up at cycle lows. Use tools like Petrolmate to find the cheapest station in your area. The price spreads remain enormous, over 100 cents per litre within the same state, and finding the right station can still save $15 to $20 per fill.

But be aware that the situation is deteriorating, not stabilising. Every week of the Hormuz closure draws down reserves, increases freight costs, and pushes more regional stations toward the edge. Trump's talk of winding down is not yet matched by actions that would reopen the strait. Until tankers are flowing again, the pressure only goes one direction.

We will keep tracking it.