If you have filled up your car in the last fortnight, you already know something has gone seriously wrong. Unleaded is averaging 260 cents a litre nationally. Diesel has punched through the three dollar barrier in every state. And this morning the Prime Minister announced the biggest emergency fuel intervention since the 1970s oil shock.

This is not a normal price cycle. This is a geopolitical crisis that has fundamentally disrupted global oil supply, and Australia, with just two operating refineries and roughly 36 days of fuel reserves, is feeling every ripple of it.

Let me walk you through exactly what has happened, what it means state by state, and what you can actually do about it.

The Strait of Hormuz Crisis

On February 28, the United States and Israel struck Iran. The Supreme Leader was killed. Within days, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and began attacking commercial shipping attempting to transit the waterway.

The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important oil chokepoint on the planet. Around 20 million barrels of oil flowed through it every day. That number has collapsed to practically zero since March 4.

Gulf states have been forced to slash production by at least 10 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency estimates global oil supply dropped by 8 million barrels per day in March alone. Brent crude, which was sitting around $75 a barrel at the start of the year, surged past $100 on March 8 and peaked at $126 before settling at $115.35 as of today.

A French led naval escort mission was announced on March 9 to protect merchant shipping, but the reality is that most tanker operators are not willing to risk their vessels and crews through an active conflict zone. The disruption is ongoing, and there is no clear end date.

This is being described as the largest energy supply disruption since the 1973 oil crisis. That comparison is not hyperbole.

How Australian Prices Have Responded

The numbers tell a brutal story. In the past week alone, according to Petrolmate data across more than 14,000 stations:

That diesel figure deserves emphasis. A 26 cent weekly increase is extraordinary. For a tradie running a dual cab with an 80 litre tank, diesel costs have gone up $20.80 per fill compared to just seven days ago. Compared to a month ago, that same tank costs roughly $60 more.

The ACCC confirmed on March 25 that diesel in the five largest capital cities averaged 303.5 cents, with regional areas even higher at 307.6 cents. Those numbers have only climbed since.

State by State Breakdown

Not every state is feeling the pain equally. Here is where things stand as of today, based on live Petrolmate data:

New South Wales

NSW unleaded is averaging 260.8 cents across more than 3,000 stations. Sydney is deep in the rising phase of its price cycle, with the ACCC reporting the city average hit 236.04 cents before the latest surge pushed it higher still. Regional NSW is being hit harder, particularly western communities where competition is thin and transport costs compound the wholesale increases.

Victoria

Victoria is averaging 260.1 cents for unleaded. Melbourne is tracking a similar cycle pattern to Sydney. The state government has announced free public transport for one month starting March 31, which is a meaningful gesture for commuters but does nothing for the tradies and delivery drivers who have no alternative to filling the tank.

Queensland

Queensland unleaded averages 260.3 cents. Brisbane at around 250 cents is one of the cheaper capitals right now, but the spread across the state is enormous. Diesel in Queensland ranges from under 200 cents at some rural stations to well over 400 cents at remote locations, a spread of more than 160 cents.

South Australia

South Australia is averaging 262.2 cents for unleaded, sitting slightly above the national average. Adelaide motorists are paying a premium that has widened over the past fortnight as wholesale costs flow through.

Western Australia

Western Australia comes in at 259.3 cents for unleaded. Perth diesel at 300.3 cents was the cheapest capital for diesel according to the latest ACCC data, though even that figure has climbed since. The mining and agriculture sectors are watching diesel prices with particular anxiety.

Tasmania

Tasmania is averaging 260.0 cents for unleaded. Hobart at 257.2 cents was recently the most expensive capital city. The island state has announced free buses and ferries until July 1, which will help commuters but reflects how acute the cost of living pressure has become.

Northern Territory

The Northern Territory remains the most expensive jurisdiction at 274.5 cents average for unleaded, with an astonishing range from 153.9 to 395.0 cents. Remote communities are bearing the worst of it, with some locations paying close to four dollars a litre for diesel. The tyranny of distance has never been more expensive.

ACT

The ACT is currently the cheapest jurisdiction at 258.1 cents average for unleaded, benefiting from proximity to major distribution networks and relatively high station density for its population.

The Government Response: Fuel Excise Halved

Today the Prime Minister announced a four stage National Fuel Security Plan. The headline measure is a halving of the fuel excise from 52.6 cents per litre to 26.3 cents for three months, effective April 1.

What does that actually mean at the bowser? For a 65 litre tank of unleaded, you save approximately $17.10 per fill. Over three months of weekly fills, that is roughly $220 back in your pocket. The measure costs the budget $2.55 billion.

The government has also:

The excise cut is welcome and will provide genuine relief. But it is important to understand its limits. Wholesale petrol costs have increased by roughly 50 cents a litre since January. The excise cut claws back about half of that. You will still be paying significantly more than you were three months ago.

It is also temporary. Unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens and global oil supply normalises within three months, the government will face enormous pressure to extend it, or find an alternative.

Why Diesel Is the Bigger Story

The 26 cent weekly jump in diesel deserves its own section because diesel is the fuel that moves the economy. Every truck on the highway, every piece of farm machinery, every construction vehicle, every delivery van runs on diesel.

When diesel hits $3.20 a litre, those costs flow through to everything you buy. Groceries, building materials, online deliveries, agricultural products. The inflation impact of sustained high diesel prices is far more consequential than what you personally pay at the pump.

The ACCC has specifically flagged that diesel is rising faster than petrol. Asian refineries are cutting output. Several Asian countries have banned fuel exports to protect domestic supply. Australia imports the vast majority of its refined diesel, and the supply chain is under pressure at every link.

Easter Travel in Freefall

Easter 2026 is shaping up to be one of the quietest travel periods in years. Domestic bookings are down 15 percent nationally, with regional tourism operators reporting drops of 50 to 92 percent in some areas.

The tourism industry estimates a $2.3 billion drop in overnight visitor spending. Two thirds of Australians surveyed said they would stay closer to home if petrol exceeded $3 a litre. For many regional areas that depend on holiday traffic, this is devastating.

The 4WD and camping community, traditionally one of the biggest Easter travel demographics, is putting trips on hold. The NRMA has advised a wait and see approach. Airfares have also spiked as jet fuel costs surge.

The EV Acceleration

There is one sector that is thriving through all of this. Electric vehicle sales have nearly doubled year on year. In January and February 2026, Australians bought 18,543 EVs compared to 9,516 in the same period last year. February alone saw 11,100 EVs sold, reaching 11.8 percent market share.

At the same time, petrol car sales dropped more than 17 percent. Search interest in EVs surged 111 percent in the three weeks to March 21. The used EV market is booming, with dealers reporting unexpected demand spikes.

At current fuel prices, the average EV driver saves approximately $2,820 a year on fuel costs. When unleaded is sitting above 260 cents a litre, that number only grows. Chinese brands like BYD and Zeekr are surging in popularity, particularly in outer suburban areas where homeowners with rooftop solar can charge for practically nothing.

The government is reportedly weighing an EV road user charge this year, which would be deeply unpopular timing given the current crisis. Watch this space.

What You Should Do Right Now

Practical steps to manage through this:

Where This Goes From Here

The honest answer is that nobody knows. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has no clear resolution timeline. Iran shows no signs of backing down. The naval escort mission has not restored normal shipping flows. Strategic reserves are finite. And the excise cut is temporary.

What we do know is that Australia's fuel vulnerability has been laid bare. Two refineries supplying less than 20 percent of demand. Import dependence on shipping lanes that can be closed by a single geopolitical event. Strategic reserves that would run out in weeks, not months.

This crisis will reshape how Australians think about fuel, transport, and energy security for years to come. The shift to EVs is accelerating. Public transport investment will come under renewed scrutiny. And the political conversation about fuel reserves and refining capacity is just beginning.

In the meantime, fill up smart, track your prices, and do not panic buy. The excise cut will provide some breathing room from Tuesday. Use it wisely.

Marcus Riley covers fuel markets and energy policy for Petrolmate. Data sourced from Petrolmate's network of 14,000+ stations, the ACCC, IEA, and government announcements as of March 30, 2026.