Petrol Prices Just Rose 31 Cents in Three Weeks. Here Is What Every Australian Driver Needs to Know About the Hormuz Crisis

Petrol Prices Just Rose 31 Cents in Three Weeks. Here Is What Every Australian Driver Needs to Know About the Hormuz Crisis

If you've filled up in the past week and thought something felt off about the number on the bowser, you weren't imagining it. The national average for unleaded has gone from 171.2 cents per litre to 201.9 cents in three weeks. That's a 30.7 cent jump, the steepest sustained rise most of us have seen since the early weeks of the Ukraine conflict back in 2022.

The reason is 12,000 kilometres away. On February 28, the Strait of Hormuz was shut down after US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets under Operation Epic Fury. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps took control of the strait. As of today, March 10, it remains closed.

We've pulled together the live price data from more than 7,500 stations across the country, combined it with what's coming out of government fuel reports and international oil market analysis, and laid it all out here. What's happened, what it's costing you, and what's likely coming next.

The Numbers, State by State

We track prices across every state and territory. Here's what the past three weeks look like.

unleaded petrol

The national average now sits at 201.9 cents per litre, up from 171.2 cents three weeks ago. NSW and Victoria have copped the worst of it with rises above 30 cents. Western Australia, which has the benefit of the FuelWatch transparency scheme, has seen a smaller but still painful 21.5 cent rise.

The Territory is a different story. Prices there were already elevated before any of this started because of transport costs and thin competition, so the percentage move looks smaller even though Darwin drivers are already paying north of $2.30.

Diesel

Diesel is up an average of 23.3 cents nationally, now sitting at 205.8 cents per litre. This one hurts in ways that go beyond what you pay at the pump. Diesel runs the trucks that stock supermarket shelves, the machinery on farms, and the generators keeping remote towns running. Every cent added to diesel ends up in the price of just about everything.

Premium and E10

premium 95 has gone up 20 to 31 cents depending on where you are. premium 98 is up 17 to 33 cents. E10 has actually seen some of the biggest swings, particularly in NSW (+37.2 cents) and Tasmania (+36.1 cents), as wholesalers push through increases to the ethanol blends that normally trade at a discount.

What This Actually Costs You

Take a typical family car with a 50 litre tank, filling up once a week:

• Three weeks ago: 50 litres at 171.2 cents = $85.60 per fill
• Today: 50 litres at 201.9 cents = $100.95 per fill
• Extra per fill: $15.35
• Extra per year at this rate: $798

If your household runs two cars, that's close to $1,600 a year in extra fuel costs before you even start counting the flow on through groceries, deliveries, and anything else that moves by truck.

Why This Is Happening

The Strait of Hormuz sits between Iran and Oman. It's 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest. About 20 per cent of all the oil that moves by ship anywhere on the planet passes through it every day, roughly 19.8 million barrels according to the US Energy Information Administration.

When the IRGC closed the strait on March 1, it cut off one of the most important energy arteries on earth. As we covered in our earlier analysis, more than 700 vessels were backed up across the Persian Gulf within days.

It's not just oil. Qatar ships roughly 106 billion cubic metres of liquefied natural gas through the strait every year, making it the world's second largest LNG exporter according to the International Energy Agency. When that stops flowing, electricity prices across Asia start climbing too, and that feeds back into everything else.

Why Australia Gets Hit Harder Than Most

Here's the uncomfortable bit. Australia imports around 90 per cent of its refined fuel. We've got exactly two oil refineries left: Ampol's plant at Lytton in Brisbane and Viva Energy's refinery at Geelong. Between them they cover roughly half of what the country needs. The rest arrives by tanker from Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and the Middle East.

The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water publishes monthly stats showing just how dependent we are on imports. Those numbers consistently show that without them, Australia would burn through its onshore fuel stocks in roughly 28 to 48 days, depending on the fuel type and how fast rationing kicks in.

We've written about this structural problem before:

• Australia Runs on 28 Days of Fuel and Two Subsidised Refineries
• Two Oil Refineries Stand Between Australia and Total Fuel Dependency
• Two Refineries and a Prayer: Australia's Fuel Security Gamble

What's Happening in Oil Markets

Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged after the closure. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report had already flagged supply worries before things escalated. Now the market is pricing in the immediate shortage and the possibility that this drags on for months.

The Australian Institute of Petroleum publishes terminal gate prices, which are what wholesalers charge retailers. Those TGPs have tracked international benchmarks upward, and because there's a lag between wholesale and retail, some of the increase hasn't fully shown up at the bowser yet.

Put bluntly, prices probably haven't finished rising. Even if the strait reopened tomorrow, it would take weeks for the tanker backlog to clear and wholesale prices to settle.

What the Government Is Doing

The Federal Government has activated provisions under the Liquid Fuel Emergency Act 1984, which gives the Energy Minister powers to direct where fuel goes during a supply emergency. Australia is also a member of the International Energy Agency, which coordinates joint action between member countries including releasing strategic petroleum reserves.

The catch is that Australia's reserves are thin compared to other developed countries. The IEA recommends members hold 90 days of net import cover. Australia has consistently fallen short of that target, relying partly on fuel sitting in tankers on the water and partly on agreements with other IEA members.

The Refinery Subsidy

The reason those two refineries at Lytton and Geelong are still running is a Federal Government subsidy called the Fuel Security Services Payment. Without it, both Ampol and Viva have said the refineries would likely shut, because they can't compete with the massive refineries in Asia. The payment is worth roughly $2 billion over its initial term.

Right now, having those two plants is providing some buffer. Both Lytton and Geelong are running flat out, processing crude sourced from outside the Hormuz corridor.

What You Can Do About It

You can't do anything about what's happening in the Persian Gulf. But there are a few things that can take the edge off at the bowser.

Compare before you fill. The price gap between servos in the same suburb can be 40 cents or more. Use Petrolmate's near me tool to check what's around you. Even a 10 cent per litre saving on a 50 litre fill is $5 back in your pocket.

Know your price cycle. In NSW and Victoria, prices follow a predictable cycle. Fill up at the bottom and you can save 20 to 30 cents per litre compared to the peak. Our best time to fill up guide walks through how it works.

Look at E10. If your car can run it (most cars built after 2005 can), E10 typically saves you 5 to 10 cents a litre over regular unleaded. LPG is even cheaper for cars that are set up for it.

Stack your discounts. Supermarket fuel discounts (4 cents a litre at Coles Express, similar at Woolworths partner stations) are worth more when base prices are high. Costco consistently undercuts the market if there's one near you.

Watch diesel if you run a business. If you're moving freight or running machinery, keeping an eye on diesel prices by state can help you time your purchases. Filling up before an anticipated spike beats paying peak rates.

What Comes Next

There are three broad scenarios being talked about by analysts and planners.

The strait reopens within weeks. If diplomacy gets a result by late March, prices would probably drift back to around 180 to 185 cents per litre over four to six weeks as the tanker queue clears. That's the best case.

The closure drags on for months. If the strait stays shut through April and May, shipping routes shift to go around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 15 days to each journey and $3 to $5 per barrel in freight costs. Prices would likely settle around 210 to 220 cents as supply chains adjust.

Things get worse. If the conflict escalates to attacks on oil infrastructure across the Gulf, prices could spike past 250 cents. That's when formal fuel rationing under the Liquid Fuel Emergency Act becomes a real prospect rather than a contingency plan.

We'll keep publishing updates as this plays out. You can track live prices across every state on Petrolmate's fuel price pages or check your local area using the interactive map.

*Prices in this report are sourced from Petrolmate's network of more than 7,500 monitored stations across all Australian states and territories, drawn from official government APIs and community sources. Data current as of March 10, 2026.*