The ACCC Just Launched Its Biggest Fuel Investigation in a Decade. Here Is Why It Might Not Be Enough

The ACCC Just Launched Its Biggest Fuel Investigation in a Decade. Here Is Why It Might Not Be Enough

On Wednesday the ACCC did something it almost never does. It told the public about an active investigation before it was finished.

The competition watchdog confirmed it is investigating Ampol, BP, Mobil and Viva Energy over allegations that diesel is not reaching independent wholesalers and distributors servicing rural and regional Australia. The ACCC said it would not normally disclose an ongoing probe but chose to do so "given the significance of the issue."

That phrase should worry people more than it reassures them. When Australia's most powerful regulator breaks its own conventions to flag an investigation, the situation is already well beyond what normal market oversight was designed to handle.

$200 Oil Is No Longer a Hypothetical

Three weeks after the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, the language around oil prices has shifted from concerned to alarming.

Brent crude hit nearly $120 on March 9 and has not dropped below $100 since March 13. It closed at $106 last week. On Wednesday, Al Jazeera ran a headline that would have seemed absurd in February: "Could oil hit $200 a barrel? Analysts no longer think it is far fetched."

Wood Mackenzie said Brent could soon reach $150 and that $200 was "not outside the realms of possibility." Chad Norville, president of Rigzone, told Al Jazeera that if Hormuz flows remain disrupted for a sustained period, "prices well above $100, even approaching $200, are plausible."

Meanwhile, no more than five ships per day have passed through the strait since the war began, compared with a historical average of 138. Iran's foreign minister flatly denied Trump's claim that Tehran wants a ceasefire, stating: "No, we never asked for a ceasefire, and we have never asked even for negotiation. We are ready to defend ourselves as long as it takes."

The IEA's 400 million barrel reserve release bought weeks. It did not change the trajectory.

What the ACCC Investigation Is Really About

The investigation centres on a specific allegation: that the four major fuel companies are restricting diesel supply to independent distributors in regional areas. If substantiated, this would mean the fuel shortages hitting country towns are not just a consequence of global supply disruption but are being made worse by domestic market behaviour.

This matters because the public narrative so far has been that regional shortages are caused by panic buying in the cities drawing supply away from the bush. The NRMA has said consumers are buying four times their normal volumes. The government has framed the problem as a logistics challenge, not a competition issue.

The ACCC investigation suggests something different may also be happening. If majors are prioritising their own retail networks over independent supply, they are effectively choosing which communities get fuel and which do not. In a market where diesel powers the freight network, the agricultural sector, and the emergency services, that is a decision with consequences well beyond market share.

Where Prices Stand Right Now

Across the more than 10,000 stations we track at Petrolmate, the national picture has deteriorated since last week.

Unleaded averages by state:

Diesel is worse: averaging 285 to 290 cents across most states, with some regional areas above 300.

The price spread within states continues to be extraordinary. In Victoria, the gap between the cheapest and most expensive unleaded is 140 cents per litre. In NSW, it is 113 cents. These are not normal market variations. They are evidence of a pricing environment where some retailers are testing how high they can go while others compete on volume.

The RBA Made Its Call. It Was Not Unanimous.

The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate to 4.10 per cent on Tuesday, the second consecutive hike. But for the first time in eight months, the decision was not unanimous. Five members voted for the increase. Four voted to hold.

Governor Bullock said the war in the Middle East and higher energy prices were contributing to inflation but were not the reason for the hike. Inflation was already too high because demand was outstripping supply. The members who voted to hold did not disagree with that assessment. They simply wanted to wait.

That split matters. It tells you the RBA itself is uncertain about whether tightening into an oil shock is the right call. ANZ and NAB are forecasting another hike in May to 4.35 per cent. If diesel stays above 280 cents, the second round effects on food and freight costs will make that decision even harder.

For a household with a $600,000 variable mortgage, the two back to back hikes have added roughly $190 a month to repayments. Combined with fuel increases of $60 to $80 a month for a typical commuter, many families in outer suburban Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane are now absorbing $250 or more in additional monthly costs since February.

Victoria's Price Cap Is Not Working

Victoria introduced mandatory 24 hour fuel price caps on March 10. Retailers must lock in their price at 2pm and hold it until 6am the next day. The policy was designed to prevent intraday price spikes and give consumers certainty.

Three weeks in, the cap is failing in regional areas. Independent retailers in country Victoria say they are being squeezed: wholesale prices are rising faster than they can pass through under the daily lock, and the ACCC investigation suggests their wholesale supply may also be restricted. The Wangaratta Chronicle reported growing concerns about fuel access for regional independents and farmers ahead of seeding season.

A price cap only works when supply is reliable. When supply is constrained and wholesale costs are volatile, a daily cap can actually force smaller operators out of the market, reducing competition and ultimately pushing prices higher. Victoria may be discovering this in real time.

The EV Acceleration Nobody Expected

Against this backdrop, Australians are voting with their wallets. Battery EV sales hit a record 11.8 per cent of new car sales in February. Used EV searches jumped 30 per cent in a single week according to carsales.com.au. These are not gradual trends. They are step changes driven by $2.40 petrol.

The irony is not lost on the industry. For years, the argument against EV adoption was that petrol was too cheap to justify the upfront cost. The Hormuz crisis has inverted that calculation for millions of households. A BYD Dolphin at $30,000 that charges from a home solar system for effectively zero fuel cost now has a payback period measured in months, not years, when compared with running a petrol car at current prices.

But as we have written before, the people being hurt most by this crisis are overwhelmingly the people who cannot afford any new car, let alone an electric one. The EV transition is real and accelerating. It is also profoundly unequal.

China's Quiet Power Play

The China dimension of this crisis continues to deepen. Beijing has suspended fuel exports, threatening roughly 30 per cent of Australia's jet fuel supply. Qantas has flagged fare increases and has not ruled out flight cancellations beyond March if supplies do not arrive. Air New Zealand has already cut over 1,100 flights.

What makes this particularly concerning is that China's decision is not a direct consequence of the Hormuz closure. Chinese refineries are not short of crude. They source primarily from Russia, which is not affected by the strait. The export suspension appears to be a strategic choice, redirecting refined fuel to domestic stockpiling while global prices are elevated.

For Australia, this means two separate supply disruptions are hitting simultaneously: one driven by geopolitics in the Middle East, the other by Chinese domestic policy. Neither is within Australia's control, and both expose the same structural vulnerability: we closed our refineries and outsourced our fuel security to the global market.

What the Investigation Needs to Find

The ACCC investigation into Ampol, BP, Mobil and Viva Energy will take months. The regulator has the power to compel documents, interview executives, and ultimately pursue penalties of up to $100 million per breach.

But what matters more than the legal outcome is what the investigation reveals about how Australia's fuel market actually works when it is under stress. Three questions matter:

First, are majors restricting supply to independents deliberately, or are they simply prioritising their own networks because supply is limited? The distinction matters legally but produces the same outcome for country towns running dry.

Second, are wholesale margins expanding beyond what the crude price increase justifies? The RACQ has already argued that retail prices jumped within two to three days of the conflict starting, when the typical pass through lag is two weeks. If wholesale margins have also widened, the profiteering case becomes much harder to dismiss.

Third, does Australia need structural reform to its fuel distribution system? The current model assumes a competitive wholesale market where independents can source supply from multiple majors. If that assumption breaks down during a crisis, the entire distribution model needs rethinking.

What You Can Do Right Now

For drivers dealing with $2.40 petrol, the practical advice remains consistent:

Fill up at the bottom of the price cycle. Our data shows the cycle is still operating in most capital cities, though the troughs are higher and the peaks are lasting longer. Track prices with tools like Petrolmate to identify the cheapest stations in your area.

The price spread within suburbs can save you $15 to $20 per fill. At current prices, choosing the cheapest station within 5km of your home rather than the nearest one can save over $1,000 a year. That does not offset a rate rise, but it helps at the margins.

If you are in a regional area where supply is constrained, contact your local council or state MP. The government's emergency reserve release added 762 million litres to domestic supply, but distribution to regional areas has been uneven. Political pressure is the most effective way to ensure your town is not left behind.

The Bigger Picture

This crisis is entering its fourth week with no diplomatic resolution in sight. Oil at $106 is not the ceiling. Analysts are modelling $150. Some are modelling $200. Iran's foreign minister has refused to negotiate.

Australia's 36 day fuel reserve was already inadequate before the crisis. Three weeks of elevated consumption, reserve releases, and supply disruption have made it thinner. The government says rationing is not on the cards. The fact that they keep having to say it tells you everything.

The ACCC investigation is necessary and overdue. But it is investigating market conduct during a structural crisis that market regulation was never designed to handle. Australia does not have a fuel profiteering problem. It has a fuel dependency problem. Until that changes, every geopolitical disruption will produce the same outcome: higher prices, regional shortages, and a frantic search for someone to blame.

We will keep tracking it.