113 Sydney Ampol Servos Lift Unleaded 5 Cents Overnight While Metro Holds at 229.7
Why would a fuel retailer raise its price on a morning when most of its neighbours leave theirs alone? Sydney this morning is a neat example of what economists call price leadership. By the 8am update, 113 of the 139 Ampol Foodary and EG Ampol servos in our Greater Sydney sample had lifted unleaded since noon yesterday, 101 of them by exactly 5 cents. Most of those changes were already showing by 6:30am.
Prices here come from the official NSW FuelCheck scheme, as of 8:00am AEDT on 29th Oct 2026.
What moved and what did not
Here's how each brand moved between noon yesterday and 8am today:
- Ampol Foodary: 65 of 80 sites lifted, and the median went from 239.9 to 244.9.
- EG Ampol: 48 of 59 sites lifted, and the median went from 238.9 to 242.9.
- 7 Eleven: 16 of 136 sites lifted, mostly by 2 cents, leaving the median at 239.8.
- BP: 3 of 85 sites lifted and 9 cut, for a median of 237.9.
- Reddy Express: all 47 sites unchanged, with a median of 241.6.
- Metro and Speedway: none of their 137 sites lifted, and their medians sit at 229.7 and 229.5.
Across all 720 servos in the sample, the median for unleaded petrol prices moved just 1 cent, from 235.9 to 236.9. So far the rise has come almost entirely from one network.
Where this fits in the cycle
Sydney's median peaked at 242.9 on 12 and 13 October, then slid slowly to 235.9 by yesterday. That gradual slide is the first half of what economists call an Edgeworth cycle.
Think of it this way. Each servo can win extra customers by pricing a cent or two under the one across the road, so prices get shaved down bit by bit. Eventually margins are thin enough that undercutting stops paying off, and someone has to go first and reset prices higher.
The key factor here is that going first is a risk. A large network can take it because it is betting that rivals will follow within a day or two. If they do, margins recover for everyone. If they don't, the leader loses customers to the servos down the road and usually has to step back down.
The gaps this opens up
Until rivals respond, gaps between neighbouring servos widen. In Greenacre, EG Ampol Greenacre went from 239.9 to 244.9 overnight, while Metro Greenacre, about 700 metres away, is on 218.7. That's a 26.2 cent gap, or $15.72 on a 60 litre tank. On 20 October the same two servos were 5 cents apart, at 237.9 and 232.9.
Two more pairs show the same thing:
- In Chester Hill, EG Ampol Chester Hill is now on 247.9, about 800 metres from Speedway Villawood at 222.9.
- In Chatswood East, EG Ampol Chatswood East moved to 247.9, while Metro Castle Cove, roughly 200 metres away, is on 229.9.
E10 prices followed the same path. Of the 127 Ampol Foodary and EG Ampol sites that list E10, 100 lifted it, mostly by 5 cents. Across Sydney, E10 still sits exactly 2 cents under unleaded at 491 of the 609 servos that list both.
Why 26 Ampol sites held
Many of the sites that held are in the south west, where local competition has been unusually strong. Ampol Foodary in Narellan and EG Ampol in Oran Park both stayed on 232.9, and Ampol Foodary in Gregory Hills held at 233.9. A week ago those three were between 237.9 and 242.9. They came down as nearby independents went lower, and Metro Minto is on 219.9 today. Both Ampol sites in Brookvale also held, at 229.9 and 229.4.
Demand at these sites is very sensitive to price. Where a rise would simply send drivers to a servo a few hundred metres away, holding the price can make more sense than raising it.
What to watch next
The next day or two will show whether this turns into a broader reset. The network to watch is 7 Eleven, with 136 sites in the sample and a median of 239.8. Whether it follows or holds will shape where the Sydney median lands.
Until then, a servo that hasn't moved can sit well under the Ampol site down the road. In the three pairs above, the gap runs from 18 to 26.2 cents. Our guide to the best time to fill up and the price trends page show how these cycles usually play out.